Analysis-of-marginal-Tail-Means (ATM): a robust method for discrete black-box optimization

We present a new method, called Analysis-of-marginal-Tail-Means (ATM), for effective robust optimization of discrete black-box problems. ATM has important applications to many real-world engineering problems (e.g., manufacturing optimization, product design, molecular engineering), where the objective to optimize is black-box and expensive, and the design space is inherently discrete. One weakness of existing methods is that they are not robust: these methods perform well under certain assumptions, but yield poor results when such assumptions (which are difficult to verify in black-box problems) are violated. ATM addresses this via the use of marginal tail means for optimization, which combines both rank-based and model-based methods. The trade-off between rank- and model-based optimization is tuned by first identifying important main effects and interactions, then finding a good compromise which best exploits additive structure. By adaptively tuning this trade-off from data, ATM provides improved robust optimization over existing methods, particularly in problems with (i) a large number of factors, (ii) unordered factors, or (iii) experimental noise. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ATM in simulations and in two real-world engineering problems: the first on robust parameter design of a circular piston, and the second on product family design of a thermistor network

Forming a Kingdom-Minded Missional Community of Discipleship Small Groups

This doctoral project presents a formational process that develops disciples who may transform the congregation of Mandarin Baptist Church of Los Angeles (hereafter, MBCLA) into a Kingdom-minded missional community of disciple small groups. The contents of this paper are organized into three parts. The first part of this project takes a closer look at MBCLA, exposing some of the critical issues and problems behind this apparently healthy church. Analyses are given to the Evangelical faith tradition, looking into the positive and negative effects upon various ministries, such as Christian education, mission, and local evangelism. Some understood practices are carefully examined to expose the blind spots in our approach to ministries. The second part of this project consists of two chapters. The first chapter reviews the literature that provides the important resources of the theoretical and theological foundation that give rise to the basic concepts of the proposed process. The second chapter synthesizes the theology and biblical foundations that give rise to the meaning, purpose, motivation, and practices of the disciple-formation process. The first chapter of Part Three focuses on applying the theological conclusions from Part Two to derive the goal, contents, and missional small group model of the proposed process. The next chapter presents the implementation plan for this process at MBCLA. The plan includes proposing an applicable infrastructure, setting up pilot projects, providing various levels of training, and designing an assessment method to track personal and communal progress. MBCLA has launched a discipleship campaign in 2010, which is gradually taking shape into this proposed form. Content Reader: Dr. Jonathan C. W

ProSpar-GP: scalable Gaussian process modeling with massive non-stationary datasets

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular class of Bayesian nonparametric models, but its training can be computationally burdensome for massive training datasets. While there has been notable work on scaling up these models for big data, existing methods typically rely on a stationary GP assumption for approximation, and can thus perform poorly when the underlying response surface is non-stationary, i.e., it has some regions of rapid change and other regions with little change. Such non-stationarity is, however, ubiquitous in real-world problems, including our motivating application for surrogate modeling of computer experiments. We thus propose a new Product of Sparse GP (ProSpar-GP) method for scalable GP modeling with massive non-stationary data. The ProSpar-GP makes use of a carefully-constructed product-of-experts formulation of sparse GP experts, where different experts are placed within local regions of non-stationarity. These GP experts are fit via a novel variational inference approach, which capitalizes on mini-batching and GPU acceleration for efficient optimization of inducing points and length-scale parameters for each expert. We further show that the ProSpar-GP is Kolmogorov-consistent, in that its generative distribution defines a valid stochastic process over the prediction space; such a property provides essential stability for variational inference, particularly in the presence of non-stationarity. We then demonstrate the improved performance of the ProSpar-GP over the state-of-the-art, in a suite of numerical experiments and an application for surrogate modeling of a satellite drag simulator

Trigonometric Quadrature Fourier Features for Scalable Gaussian Process Regression

Fourier feature approximations have been successfully applied in the literature for scalable Gaussian Process (GP) regression. In particular, Quadrature Fourier Features (QFF) derived from Gaussian quadrature rules have gained popularity in recent years due to their improved approximation accuracy and better calibrated uncertainty estimates compared to Random Fourier Feature (RFF) methods. However, a key limitation of QFF is that its performance can suffer from well-known pathologies related to highly oscillatory quadrature, resulting in mediocre approximation with limited features. We address this critical issue via a new Trigonometric Quadrature Fourier Feature (TQFF) method, which uses a novel non-Gaussian quadrature rule specifically tailored for the desired Fourier transform. We derive an exact quadrature rule for TQFF, along with kernel approximation error bounds for the resulting feature map. We then demonstrate the improved performance of our method over RFF and Gaussian QFF in a suite of numerical experiments and applications, and show the TQFF enjoys accurate GP approximations over a broad range of length-scales using fewer features